2009/2/12 台北 摘自《经济学家》印刷版
Feb 12th 2009 TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition
The ugliest economy of them all?
WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.
Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets（n.小器件,小配件）for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated(v.恶化) by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.
Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.
Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker(adj.寒冷的). Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.
