冷周三：再过20年，巧克力也快绝迹了 巧克力, 绝迹

kobe

  

巧克力人人都爱吃，但是人们照目前这个状态吃下去的话，20年后巧克力也就快要绝迹了，20年后巧克力将像鱼子酱一样成为昂贵的奢侈品。

道理很简单，制造巧克力的主要原料可可变得越来越少了，并且也越来越难以种植。
来自西非的主要可可种植地，现在已经开始慢慢的向其他农作物转变。这意味着什么，意味着如果你想以送巧克力的方式讨MM 欢心，你将付出更多的代价。
当然，很多公司也在研究可可基因（已在今年9月份初步完成了可可的基因序列），希望将起改造成为更容易种植和丰收的植物。
# 嗯在此之前，我们先库存一些巧克力吧。
# 我突然发现这完全就是致富信息嘛。

evaxiaofan

回复 4# kobe


    这不是你所说的商机吗？忽悠人呢~~

kobe

回复 5# mickey918


    haha~很容易肥的哦~~嘻嘻

mickey918

库存太不实际了
还是采用大量摄取法吧 哈哈
那我要多多的吃了

kobe

那是肯定变的~~你还真想藏20年

evaxiaofan

前些天的那个巧克力展会实在是太浪费了~~

但是，放20年，会不会变质啊~~~

kobe

回复 1# kobe



   
Fancy a bit of chocolate? An afternoon Kit Kat with your cup of tea? A chunk of fruit and nut? Go on, you've earned it.

Except that in the future, chocoholics might have to work quite a bit harder   to pay for their fix. The world could run out of affordable chocolate within   20 years as farmers abandon their crops in the global cocoa basket of West   Africa, industry experts claim.
"Galaxy, Creme Eggs, every kind of £1 chocolate bar will be a thing of   the past," warns London chocolatier Marc Demarquette, who believes a   bar at £7, or its future equivalent, will be more like it. And Demarquette,   who worked as an advisor for a recent BBC Panorama documentary on the   troubled West African cocoa fields, is not alone. John Mason, executive   director and founder of the Ghana-based Nature Conservation Research   Council, has forecast that shortages in bulk production in Africa will have   a devastating effect: "In 20 years chocolate will be like caviar. It   will become so rare and so expensive that the average Joe just won't be able   to afford it."
The reason for this unimaginable shortage – which has been presaged by the   doubling of cocoa prices in six years to an all-time high over the past   three decades – is simple.
Farmers in the countries that produce the bulk of cocoa bought by the   multinationals who control the market have found the crop a bitter harvest.   The minimal rewards they have historically received do not provide   incentives for the time-consuming work of replanting as their trees die off   – a task that usually means moving to a new area of canopied forest and   waiting three to five years for a new crop to mature.
"It's hard to maintain production at high levels in a particular plot of   land every time, because of pest problems that eat away at the yields and   the farms need to be rejuvenated," explains Thomas Dietsch, research   director of ecosystem services at the Earthwatch Organisation. "Although   research into new varieties and better management methods could solve those   problems, the other challenge is that cocoa is competing for agricultural   space with other commodities like palm oil – which is increasingly in demand   for biofuels."
Meanwhile, as the supply of the raw material diminishes, millions of new   consumers in the developing world are becoming addicted to the sweet   energy-fix at the end of the processing chain. "Chocolate consumption   is increasing faster than cocoa production – and it's not sustainable,"   Tony Lass, chairman of the Cocoa Research Association, told the annual   conference of Britain's Academy of Chocolate last month.
Despite price rises on the trading floor, precious little reaches the   smallholders who make up 95 per cent of growers, according to Mr. Lass, a   former Cadburys trader and ethical sourcing advisor who has co-authored a   book on the cocoa industry.
"These smallholders earn just 80 cents a day," he says. "So   there is no incentive to replant trees when they die off, and to wait up to   five years for a new crop, and no younger generation around to do the   replanting. The children of these African cocoa farmers, whose life   expectancy is only 56, are heading for the cities rather than undertake   backbreaking work for such a small reward." As harvests diminish on the   Ivory Coast, by far the world's biggest cocoa producer, crops in Indonesia,   the third largest producer, have been hit by a change in weather systems,   forcing cocoa prices sky-high.
Demarquette, who makes chocolate for Fortnum's and has a shop in London's   Fulham Road, adds that, to make matters worse, the soil in Africa's   traditional cocoa fields is rapidly becoming depleted. "In Ghana and   Ivory Coast the earth is dead where trees have already been harvested –   there are no nutrients left in the soil," he claims. And some farmers   in West Africa have turned to child labour to compensate for the manpower   shortage.
"Production will have decreased within 20 years to the point where we   won't see any more cheap bars in vending machines – unless they are made   with carob instead of chocolate," he says. "It's because the   growers in West Africa only see 2p for every £1 bar. Even if you double   that, it's no incentive for the next generation – which rightly expects   decent working conditions. Those young people are heading for the cities.   They won't stay around just so schoolchildren and commuters can continue to   get their quick fix."
The good news for consumers is that cocoa, which can only be grown in   latitudes within 10 degrees of the equator, is also being produced in South   America, the Caribbean and Asia.
However Demarquette says it looks doubtful that those areas will be able to   satisfy increased demand, "given the speed with which consumption is   growing, with new markets like India and China coming along behind and   following Western tastes".
There is already an upward trend in retail prices for quality chocolate, he   notes: "With growers of premium cocoa beans already getting up to 45p   per bar to look after their crops properly and fund their future, chocolate   will go back to being what it used to be – a rarefied treat."
Perhaps the world will be happy to live with that. Mintel figures released   last month show that all the growth in the £3.6bn chocolate market is in the   premium sector, which means chocoholics may well be prepared to dig ever   deeper into their pockets for their fix.
"We are currently selling a 70g bar for £7 – and the price will go up, as   there is ever more demand for properly cultivated beans," says   Demarquette.
"Of course," he adds, "there is all the difference in the world   betweendecent chocolate and confectionery that is so full of sugar and palm   oilthat it doesn't deserve to be called chocolate at all."
Sara Jayne Stanes, chair of the UK Academy of Chocolate, believes foodies will   save the chocolate industry from extinction by paying whatever it takes for   the good stuff: "I do not believe we will run out of cocoa beans, as   sustainability is something that affects us all," she says.
"Over the past 10-15 years, growing curiosity and interest in the   fine-chocolate end of the market has created an understanding of how it is   different from chocolate confectionery," she says. Consumers must   appreciate that "fine chocolate, like fine wine, will cost considerably   more, as cocoa farmers stop leaving the land in search of better-paid jobs   in the cities. The result will be more careful cultivation of the crops, and   a greater supply of fine cocoas."
A spokesman from Cadburys doesn't deny the shortage of cheaper cocoa, but   suggests scarcity might be averted through Fair Trade initiatives.
"Together with other manufacturers and the wider cocoa industry, we have   been working on a number of agricultural initiatives to both increase and   improve yields," he says. "Our move into Fair Trade was a separate   step, to both pay a better price to farmers, and to encourage the next   generation of cocoa farmers to stay within the industry."
The crisis may well be averted in Ghana, Cadbury's supply heartland and the   world's second largest producer, according to Divine Chocolate, a Ghanaian   manufacturer that is 45 per cent owned by a cooperative of 45,000 cocoa   farmers. "The Fair Trade system helps ensure that the value of farming   is delivered directly to the farmers and their communities," says its   managing director Sophi Tranchell.
"The best route for sustainability is for farmers to organise themselves   into larger units, to be able to manage their own farming improvements   through improved remuneration, and to put them in a position where they have   more influence in the cocoa supply chain. Why else should they continue?"   She believes Divine Chocolate has found the right recipe: "Fairtrade –   and particularly the Divine ownership model – delivers sustainability into   the hands of the farmers, not the hands of the global buyers."
But it is in the Ivory Coast, by far the world's largest source of cocoa,   where the future of the crop is much more uncertain. "Fair Trade   doesn't really exist here," says Ange Aboa, a reporter based in the   country's largest city, Abidjan, who specialises in covering the industry. "Young   people are moving away from cocoa into rubber, whose price is more stable.   And on top of that we have cocoa diseases like swollen shoot and black pod,   which have caused a 10 per cent drop in production."
The biggest hope, he says, is a Nestlé project to replant 10m trees over the   next decade: "But these are only for the cooperatives with whom they   work, and the replanting will make up for about a quarter of the trees which   have been lost. Their goal is to buy only from the cooperatives in future,   and not top up by buying from local exporters".
This should result in better quality beans, he says, but the question of   whether there will be enough of them to continue to perpetuate the world   view of chocolate as a cheap energy-fix is much more questionable.
"It's hard to imagine a world without a demand for chocolate, but whether   it remains the low-cost snack food it is now may well change in time,"   says Earthwatch's Dietsch. "If the demand for biofuels pushes up the   price of the oil-palm crop it may well supplant cocoa – unless measures are   taken for those farmers who still grow it to remain in cocoa production."
But one cause for optimism, he says, is that "the cocoa industry is far   ahead of other commodities, like coffee, in putting programmes in place that   seek to ensure sustainable supplies".